ACEA

Transport growth offsets CO2 reductions

While there are a large number of alternatives for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by the transport sector, the effects the sector's reductions may be counteracted by continuing growth in demand and obstacles such as consumer preferences and lack of policy frameworks.

These are the key conclusions on the outlook for cutting greenhouse gases (GHG) from transport in the latest report* by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), recently endorsed at a UN conference in Bangkok by 180 governments.

No shortage of policy options

GHG emissions rose by 70% between 1970 and 2004, with the largest contribution coming from energy supply (up by 145%) and transport (120%). Carbon dioxide accounts for 77% of all emissions. In looking for emissions cuts from various sectors, the IPCC panel identified energy supply, building and construction as likely to deliver more than transport (or ‘made the assessment that…’).

The report said that transport growth will to some extent offset emissions cuts. Consumer preferences may also not help. Looking at the various policy options, the panel report said:

• Improvements in vehicle efficiencies that lead to fuel savings are affected by consumer preferences on the size and performance of cars.


• Biofuels might play an important part depending on their production “pathway”. Of current trends, biofuels used as petrol and diesel additives are projected to grow to 3% of total transport energy demand by 2030. But this could rise to 5-10%, depending on future oil and carbon prices, improvements in vehicle efficiency and the success of technologies using cellulose biomass.


• There are opportunities for GHG reductions through modal shifts from road to rail and inland waterway shipping and from low occupancy to high-occupancy passenger transport offer


• Policies for addressing traffic congestion, air quality and energy security can all help reduce emissions in the transport sector.

However, the IPCC also highlighted some constraints on environmentally effective policy measures emphasising that the effectiveness of mandatory fuel economy standards, biofuel blending and CO2 standards for road transport may be limited by the fact that they only partially cover the vehicle fleet in use.

Looking at technologies that are currently commercially available for reducing road transport emissions, the report singled out more fuel efficient vehicles, hybrids, cleaner diesels, biofuels, modal shifts from road to rail and public transport, non-motorised transport (cycling and walking), land-use and transport planning.

Looking ahead to technologies expected to be available by 2030 the report highlighted second generation biofuels and advanced electric and hybrid vehicles with more powerful and reliable batteries.

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